Lear Corp. - Bargain in the Scary Auto Sector

The industry is desperately flailing its arms and trying not to sink, but the stocks have sinked already and provide a great value pick here. A great value in particular is Lear - manufacturer of seating systems with 20% share of the global market ($12B revenue) and electrical distribution systems ($3B). North America is ~45% of sales, and overall sales are projected to decline 7-8% - 15% in North America and flat in RoW. The key question is really normalized profit. I say the margins on the business should be around 4-5%, plus given the history of chronic restructuring you should shave another $100M off cash flow, so you get to implied $500-$650M EBIT. Say x9 multiple, and we get to the most conservative range of $4.5B valuation (and $4B to be ultra conservative). That means backing out net current debt of $1.8B the equity should be value in the ultra conservative scenario at $2.2B, 120% upside from current levels. I say lets get rich and buy some stock.