Airlines - Jump in When Outlook Is Bleakest

6 months ago I was going to start purchasing the homebuilder stocks, but was finally swayed by all the "experts" saying how things are only going to get worse from there, with further reductions in inventory revenues and precipitous drops in sales. I factored all those things in and still stocks seemed to very cheap both given their earnings potential and p/book values. Result? Most players since then are up 50%. Should have listened to Warren Buffet: is just next to impossible to time the market, you should just buy the stocks when they are selling far below intrinsic value and eventually they'll get back to it.
I think currently the airlines are selling far below what they're worth intrinsically. The combination of rising oil prices and weakening macro have created a tremendous pressure on profitability, leading to for every airline, and as a result all major U.S. airlines have lost up to 70% of their values. The current valuation levels seem to assume that the airline profitability will never recover to normative levels, with the permanent high oil prices and intense competition eating away all the profits. I meanwhile happen to believe that the industry's management is not masochistic, and likes to earn some acceptable level of return over the long run, even though that return may gyrate wildly year over year. What should this return be? Take Continental. The company has $6B worth of planes. These planes better make 12% a year in EBIT or why the heck do they own them? 12%x6=720M. On revenue of $14B, that's 5% operating margin. Multiply that by 10x, not outrageous multiple, and you get what I think is a fair EV for Continental, compared to the current $4B. Or otherwise, the equity should be worth $3B more than right now, or ~57 a share. While this whopping 235% return will not materialize anytime soon, I think that at least 100% should be attainable within two years. Buckle your seatbelt though.