Tuesday, April 15, 2008

And from Silgan we move to another packager, Crown Holdings. Different from Silgan in the fact that it is a) bigger ($8B in sales) b) much more international with the U.S. accounting for only 30% of sales c) operates in . Similar to Silgan, a lot of recent growth has come from acquisitions, as Crown grew from 2B in 89 to 8B in 97. And now we present the business segments:
Beverage Cans and Ends. $3B in revenues, aluminum beverage cans are sold to beverage and beer companies like Coke and Heineken.
Food Cans and Closures. $2.5B in revenues. In North America holds #3 position behind Silgan, but the fundamental business is the same.
Aerosol Cans. 25% share in the U.S. behind Ball's 45% share, produces aerosol cans for Unilever and P&G

Beverage industry. 230B of beverage cans are shipped worldwide, with U.S. accounting for almost 50%. Global growth is 1-2%, as some regions like Asia and South America are growing high-single digits, while U.S. is flat to slightly negative. Crown has 20% share of the U.S. market, behind Ball's 30%. Chinese market, as always, offers pretty good potential, but is currently only 10B cans vs 100B in U.S., Crown holds a 25% share.
Food industry. Crown has 20% in the U.S., where the market has been flat since 1990.
Aerosol market. 4B containers in the U.S. (10 per person a year vs 300 beverage containers. do we really drink a bottle of beer a day??). Crown holds 25% share.

Financials. Historical EBIT margins have been around 8% in the last three years and I don't see it changing much over time. Revenue growth? 4-6%, probably 2-3% in the U.S. and a bit faster in other geographies. I see no fireworks happening for the company, with the stock currently trading at 10x 08 EBIT, it is at exactly the same valuation level as Silgan, and I suspect their price movements will track each other pretty closely. Hm, maybe I'll just stop looking at this packaging sector, way too boring so far.

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