And from Silgan we move to another packager, Crown Holdings. Different from Silgan in the fact that it is a) bigger ($8B in sales) b) much more international with the U.S. accounting for only 30% of sales c) operates in . Similar to Silgan, a lot of recent growth has come from acquisitions, as Crown grew from 2B in 89 to 8B in 97. And now we present the business segments:
Beverage Cans and Ends. $3B in revenues, aluminum beverage cans are sold to beverage and beer companies like Coke and Heineken.
Food Cans and Closures. $2.5B in revenues. In North America holds #3 position behind Silgan, but the fundamental business is the same.
Aerosol Cans. 25% share in the U.S. behind Ball's 45% share, produces aerosol cans for Unilever and P&G
Beverage industry. 230B of beverage cans are shipped worldwide, with U.S. accounting for almost 50%. Global growth is 1-2%, as some regions like Asia and South America are growing high-single digits, while U.S. is flat to slightly negative. Crown has 20% share of the U.S. market, behind Ball's 30%. Chinese market, as always, offers pretty good potential, but is currently only 10B cans vs 100B in U.S., Crown holds a 25% share.
Food industry. Crown has 20% in the U.S., where the market has been flat since 1990.
Aerosol market. 4B containers in the U.S. (10 per person a year vs 300 beverage containers. do we really drink a bottle of beer a day??). Crown holds 25% share.
Financials. Historical EBIT margins have been around 8% in the last three years and I don't see it changing much over time. Revenue growth? 4-6%, probably 2-3% in the U.S. and a bit faster in other geographies. I see no fireworks happening for the company, with the stock currently trading at 10x 08 EBIT, it is at exactly the same valuation level as Silgan, and I suspect their price movements will track each other pretty closely. Hm, maybe I'll just stop looking at this packaging sector, way too boring so far.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment