Monday, April 14, 2008

Silgan Holdings is a packaging company with $3B in sales selling metal containers for pet/homo sapiens food, misc plastic containers and vacuum closures. The company was formed in 1987 through acquiring of Nestle's Segments and continued the acquisition strategy up to this day, which explains the heavy amount of debt on its balance sheet.

Metal food containers. $1.7B sales, $151M operating income. Steel and aluminum containers that are primarily used for soups, vegetables, fruit, meat and pet food. The market for metal containers has been flat historically however Silgan has grown through increasing its share from 10% in 87 to 50% now. 90% of sales are through long-term supply agreements.
Plastic containers. $600M in sales. Custom designed containers for personal and health care, including containers for shampoos, cleaning products and tablets. Market is highly fragmented and company intends to pursue additional acquisitions in the sector.
Closures. Leading global manufacturer of closures with $615M in sales, business formed through acquiring U.S. White Cap operations in 2003 and then international operations in 2007. Products include metal, composite and vacuum closures for food and beverage products like juices, salsa, soups.

Top 3 customers of the company are Campbell, Nestle and Del Monte that account respectively 12%, 11 and 11% of total sales. With Nestle for example, Silgan supplies 100% of total U.S food container requirements under long-term contracts with pricing adjustable based on input costs. Because of high costs of transporting containers, manufacturing is typically located within 300 miles of customer plants. Many customers, localized market leads to a lot of plants => Silgan has 69 manufacturing locations.

Industry. Throughout the last twenty years food manufacturers chose to focus their efforts on core business, divesting packaging arms that have been gobbled up by the likes of Silgan.

Return on capital and growth prospects? You can cans out of metal, which is, lets face it, no rocket science. Hence you expect you returns on capital to be around the cost of equity of ~11-13%. So what are they? Net PP&E is $940M, inventory is $420M, AP is close to AR, capital is ~$1400, while EBIT is $264M x .65% = $171M, which gives us 12%. Bingo. How will this business grow? Probably close to GDP, maybe slightly below. I ran a quick cash flow valuation assuming 12% discount rate and got the equity value of ~$1.4B, that is slightly below the current valuation. Conclusion? No upside, so I'm staying away from the shares that can only get pressured as the economy slows down further.

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